CERTIFY · REJECT · PROBE · ASK · CALIBRATED CONSEQUENCE CHECKS FOR THE ACTIONS OF AI AGENTS · NO LLM ON THE CERTIFY PATH · FAIL CLOSED · CERTIFY · REJECT · PROBE · ASK · CALIBRATED CONSEQUENCE CHECKS FOR THE ACTIONS OF AI AGENTS · NO LLM ON THE CERTIFY PATH · FAIL CLOSED · CERTIFY · REJECT · PROBE · ASK · CALIBRATED CONSEQUENCE CHECKS FOR THE ACTIONS OF AI AGENTS · NO LLM ON THE CERTIFY PATH · FAIL CLOSED · CERTIFY · REJECT · PROBE · ASK · CALIBRATED CONSEQUENCE CHECKS FOR THE ACTIONS OF AI AGENTS · NO LLM ON THE CERTIFY PATH · FAIL CLOSED · CERTIFY · REJECT · PROBE · ASK · CALIBRATED CONSEQUENCE CHECKS FOR THE ACTIONS OF AI AGENTS · NO LLM ON THE CERTIFY PATH · FAIL CLOSED · CERTIFY · REJECT · PROBE · ASK · CALIBRATED CONSEQUENCE CHECKS FOR THE ACTIONS OF AI AGENTS · NO LLM ON THE CERTIFY PATH · FAIL CLOSED · CERTIFY · REJECT · PROBE · ASK · CALIBRATED CONSEQUENCE CHECKS FOR THE ACTIONS OF AI AGENTS · NO LLM ON THE CERTIFY PATH · FAIL CLOSED · CERTIFY · REJECT · PROBE · ASK · CALIBRATED CONSEQUENCE CHECKS FOR THE ACTIONS OF AI AGENTS · NO LLM ON THE CERTIFY PATH · FAIL CLOSED ·
“Money deducted, order not placed” has several endings, and refunding right now loses money in most of them. RiskGate checks the payment switch first and certifies a different action per ending.
Transcript0:55 · narrated
Public tickets, catalogue and RBI circular · simulated tickets and switch states · real riskgate verdicts · not affiliated with any platform or bank
01 · What happened
The situation
2,327 payment-related tickets in five weeks at a large Indian marketplace. A Prestige pressure cooker (₹2,100) paid by UPI; the customer says the money left their account but no order appeared. The bot's playbook ranks an instant refund first.
02 · The miss
Why the obvious safeguard didn’t catch it
The harmful world is in the future. If the debit actually failed, RBI rules require the bank to auto-reverse it within T+5 days, so an instant refund pays twice. If the payment succeeded late, the right move is to confirm the order.
03 · RiskGate
List, play forward, decide
RiskGate asks what could be true. Four endings fit; in three of them a refund now is money lost.
It checks the payment switch first: read-only.
Bank says paid? Refund skipped, order confirmed. Bank says failed? No refund: reversed by day five. Paid twice? Refund certified. Pending? A person decides.
04 · At scale
What held, and the price
On 4,000 simulated tickets with an assumed mix of endings, the bot's instant refund was wrong 88% of the time. Behind RiskGate, certified wrong payouts were 0.9% under a 5% budget, with 79% of tickets handled with no person.
88% → 0.9%wrong payouts (simulated)
79%handled with no person
T+5days, RBI auto-reversal rule
Name one action your agent isn’t allowed to take today.
Send us its traces and what happened afterwards. We’ll show how often it could have run safely, and what it would have stopped.